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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/BRL Analysis: Hits Record Highs
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/BRL Analysis: Hits Record Highs". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- The USD/BRL traded above a high of 6.1100 momentarily on Friday.
- While some selling did get demonstrated after this and the 6.0000 did become a target lower, obvious higher ratios in the USD/BRL are clearly being demonstrated.
- At this time last year the USD/BRL was trading around the 4.8650 ratio.
- Day traders who have tried to bet on lower momentum suddenly being produced in the USD/BRL should remain extremely cautious.
- Speculators will need to be ready for wide spreads upon the opening for the USD/BRL due to recent trading.
Internal domestic political and fiscal issues from the ruling Workers Party led by Lula da Silva are causing displeasure in financial institutions dealing with the Brazilian Real. And the addition of U.S President-elect Trump has caused bullish buying for the USD/BRL too as talk about potential tariffs and his political preferences seep into outlook. Watching the currency pair, instead of betting on it, for the first hour or two today may prove to be worthy patience.
6.0000 Reality for the USD/BRL
Near-term traders should remain braced for more volatility in the USD/BRL. Lula da Silva will have plenty to say regarding the loss of value in the Brazilian Real and likely blame it on speculative zeal, but his lack of solid fiscal policy has certainly led to buying of the USD/BRL. The ruling government of Brazil has also made it clear they intend on trying to cause problems for political opponents. The USD/BRL was trading near the 5.0000 in March of this year.
Price velocity higher the past few weeks has certainly been helped by the election of Donald Trump. The ability of the USD/BRL to surpass the 6.0000 is a warning sign that financial institutions are skittish. If the currency pair is able to sustain the 6.0000 level in the near-term this would be a signal some financial institutions believe additional buying is going to be seen. The reality of the USD/BRL may be a surprise for many, but looking for a sustained move lower to ratios seen March of this year, or values seen last year at this time feels like fantasy.
USD/BRL and U.S Economic Data
Yes, the USD has seen strong buying across Forex and risk adverse conditions have hurt other major currencies. However, the loss of value in the Brazilian Real compared to the other major currencies paired against the USD doesn’t correlate via math. The nervous sentiment being generated in the USD/BRL has been increasing throughout this year. The election of Donald Trump added ingredients into the volatile mix.
- The ability of the USD/BRL to climb above the 5.8000 and 5.9000 levels the past week need to be watched and taken seriously.
- Traders who are contemplating selling positions to try and capture some downwards momentum are betting against the established trend.
- U.S jobs numbers will be released this Friday but its affect on the USD/BRL could be muted.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 6.0790
Current Support: 6.0350
High Target: 6.1290
Low Target: 5.9800
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