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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Hits Ultimate Support, Brief Rebound Likely
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Hits Ultimate Support, Brief Rebound Likely". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6400 and a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6300.
Bearish View
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6300.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6440.
The AUD/USD pair continued its downtrend after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged as was widely expected. The pair retreated to a low of 0.6375, its lowest level since August 5.
RBA Hints Rate Cuts are Coming
The AUD/USD exchange rate retreated after the RBA interest rate decision. It left rates at 4.35%, where they have been stuck at in the past twelve months.
The bank noted that inflation was still at an elevated level. At the same time, officials maintained that inflation was on a path to its target level of 2.0%. Therefore, analysts believe that the bank may start to cut rates as soon as in its February meeting.
The RBA has become the last central bank to not cut interest rates this year. In the United States, the Fed has already delivered two rates in the last meetings, and analysts expect more to come.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have also slashed rates this year.
The next key AUD/USD news will be the upcoming Australian jobs numbers scheduled on Thursday. Economists expect the data showing that the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November as the economy created over 26k jobs..
The pair will also react to the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data, which will help the Fed when making its decision next week. Economists expect the data to show that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose from 2.6% to 2.7%, while the core CPI remained at 3.3%.
According to the CME Fed Rate Monitor Tool, most economists expect the Fed to deliver the third rate cut. It will then start a gradual phase of cutting rates in a bid to support the economy.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a strong downtrend in the past few weeks. It has dropped from the year-to-date high of 0.6941 to the current 0.6375.
The pair has moved below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. It has also dropped below the weak, stop & reverse level of Murrey Math Lines at 0.6400. It is also approaching the key support at 0.6350, its lowest point on August 5 and the ultimate support of the math lines.
Therefore, while the downtrend will continue, a brief rebound cannot be ruled out. If this happens, it will retest the key resistance at 0.6450 and then resume the downtrend.
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