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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Holds Neutral, Eyes Key Resistance
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Holds Neutral, Eyes Key Resistance". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- Since the start of this important trading week, the Pound Sterling has managed to gain against other major currencies, even in the absence of any significant impactful British data.
- Furthermore, its gains came thanks to positive trading conditions.
- In the case of the GBP/USD pair, it rose to the resistance level of 1.2798 before settling around 1.2738 at the time of writing this analysis.
As a currency that has become more sensitive to risk, the Pound Sterling benefited from the optimistic market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, with little other support, the Pound Sterling's gains were relatively modest, with the Pound Sterling primarily rising against safer currencies rather than its riskier counterparts.
Dollar Price Affected by US Inflation Figures
According to licensed trading platforms, the US dollar has retreated from its previous highs after US inflation rates came in line with expectations. According to economic data results, the US Consumer Price Index rose to 2.7% in November, as expected, but this was higher than 2.6% in October, marking the fifth consecutive increase.
It was also announced that the US Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, which is also in line with expectations. The core Consumer Price Index recorded 0.31% in November, with the 12-month rate remaining at 3.3%, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. Overall, the main conclusions are that US inflation is proving to be stubborn, which will limit the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025. However, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates again next week as the numbers were in line with expectations.
Pound Sterling Supported by China's Policies
China's stimulus measures this week have supported risk appetite and expectations of further cuts in Chinese interest rates. There were reports that the Politburo had changed its 2025 forecast for China's monetary policy from cautious to appropriately loose. This would be the first official change in language since 2010. As a result, hopes for political stimulus have supported commodities and British stocks, which in turn helped support the Pound Sterling. However, there are still significant geopolitical pressures and uncertainties.
US Interest Rate Expectations
After financial markets and investors reacted to the US jobs and inflation announcements, financial markets are expecting another US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with markets pricing in a near 90% chance of a 25bp cut. The US Federal Reserve will generally enter a blackout period this week, but there will be increased focus on the 2025 outlook. President-elect Trump has recently indicated that he will not ask Fed Chairman Powell to resign, although there is an element of ambiguity as he has stated that Powell may resign if asked. As such, uncertainty may limit the scope for buying the US dollar.
Trading Tips:
It seems clear that the performance of the British pound is waiting for more stimulus so that it does not get sold and lose its recent gains, as the sterling is a risk currency
Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the performance on the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair remains in a neutral position with an upward bias. The bulls' success in moving towards the resistance levels of 1.2840 and the psychological resistance of 1.3000 will strengthen the upward trend. Conversely, and on the same time frame, a return to the vicinity of the 1.2610 support will undermine the current upward outlook. The Relative Strength Index is in a neutral position, confirming the balance between bears and bulls. Technically, the MACD is turning upwards but still needs more gains to confirm. Today, GBP/USD will be affected by the announcement of weekly US jobless claims and the reading of the Producer Price Index. Furthermore, this is in addition to the extent of investor risk appetite.
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