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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Weakens vs USD
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Weakens vs USD". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.75.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 35.25.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 35.25.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 35.30.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rose at the beginning of the weekly trading, as the pair continued trading with the same upward pace daily and continuously over the past months. Despite the limited daily rises, these rises have pushed the Turkish lira to record continuous losses as the dollar records new highs almost daily. These rises come at a time when the monetary authorities in the country have reduced support for the local currency as the volume of dollar injections into the markets has declined over the past months.
Meanwhile, official data released by the central bank in the country revealed a decline in the volume of foreign currency deposit accounts by $3.03 billion during the week ending December 6, bringing the total to $162.71 billion. The total volume of foreign currency-protected deposit accounts also decreased to an estimated 1.185 trillion Turkish lira, equivalent to about $33.84 billion, during the same period. Despite the rise of the dollar during the current year, it has not been able to keep pace with the high inflation rates in Turkey or provide competitive returns compared to interest rates on Turkish lira deposits. Inflation is expected to reach around 45% by the end of the year, while returns on Turkish lira deposits have exceeded 40%.
In other news, Deutsche Bank analysts in Turkey issued forecasts for interest rates in the upcoming central bank meeting scheduled for this week. Furthermore, the report includes expectations of a reduction in the interest rate that has been fixed for the past eight meetings. This will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the lira. The report also included that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Turkish lira will reach 40 liras by the end of next year.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair continued its gains, maintaining the pace of the rises that the pair recorded over the past months. Concurrently, the price is approaching the levels of 35.25 lira. Moreover, Current estimates indicate that the pair will continue to rise within the overall upward trend that dominates the pair's trading. Clearly, the price is based on a small upward trendline that represents support levels. Also, on a larger time frame, the price is trading above another upward trendline that may support the pair's rises. At the same time, the price is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on both the daily and four-hour timeframes. Finally, the Turkish lira price forecast includes the continued rise of the pair after each decline, targeting levels of 35.25 and 35.50, respectively.
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