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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Weakens as Economic Concerns Grow
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Lira Weakens as Economic Concerns Grow". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 36.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 35.95.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 36.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 36.50.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 36.60.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 36.30.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair continued its upward trend during Asian trading on Thursday morning. The dollar recorded 35.32 lira, maintaining the daily gains, which continue despite being slight increases. The Turkish lira is expected to continue to decline according to the update by Morgan Stanley Bank, which updated its analysts' expectations for the future of the Turkish lira. The dollar is expected to reach 36.50 in the first quarter, 38 in the second quarter, before the dollar continues to rise to levels of 41 in the third quarter, before the dollar ends the year at levels of 44 lira.
Recently, the lira's decline has angered the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSİAD), which criticized the country's fiscal and monetary policies. The association pointed to the deteriorating economic situation, the continued rise in inflation, and what they described as the continued collapse of the Turkish currency, coinciding with a decline in foreign investment in the country. Finally, the criticisms of the Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association included the government's increasing intervention in the market.
At the same time, the association called for urgent reforms aimed at restoring the economy to stability, as well as providing independence to the judiciary, warning the government against interfering in judicial matters.
On the other hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attacked the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSİAD) on Wednesday after it criticized government policies, warning against attempts to influence political decisions. Erdoğan also rejected the association's accusations, considering that its criticisms were due to its desire to restore its old influence over the state, and stressed that his government would not succumb to its pressure. It is reported that the Public Prosecutor's Office has begun an investigation with the head of the Advisory Council of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association on charges of harming public order.
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that expectations of the lira's continued decline have increased in recent times with the monetary authorities in the country adopting a comparison of the lira's value with the extent of inflation slowdown, not with the nominal value of the Turkish currency.
TRYUSD T.echnical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair rose this morning, recording levels of 36.32 lira compared to the 36.29 levels recorded yesterday. The pair's rise continues at a slow pace. Obviously, these increases have negatively affected the Turkish lira's price expectations in the medium and long term. The Turkish currency is expected to continue its losses, especially with the pair stabilizing in trading within a rising price channel that supports the pair's rise. Also, the pair received support through trading above the 50-movement average on the four-hour time frame. Therefore, every decline in the pair represents an opportunity to re-purchase. Finally, the pair targets levels of 36.55 lira and 36.75 lira, respectively.
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