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market analysis
【XM Forex】--Gold Analysis: Bullish Outlook Remains Strongest
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--Gold Analysis: Bullish Outlook Remains Strongest". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Key Analysis Points:
- Gold price on its way to the top of $3000
- Weakness of the US dollar supports prices higher
- Geopolitical and trade tensions are increasing
The decline in the US dollar, along with increasing global geopolitical and trade tensions, were the most prominent factors contributing to the rise in spot gold prices to the resistance level of $2930 per ounce last week. This is the closest point to its all-time high when it tested the resistance level of $2957 per ounce at the end of last week's trading. The gold price index closed last week's trading stable around the $2912 per ounce level, after markets and investors reacted to statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who ruled out rapid US interest rate cuts and expressed confidence in US economic performance.
At the end of the week's trading and through the platforms of licensed trading companies. In the bond market, US Treasury yields initially fell after the US jobs report but rose after Powell’s comments prompted traders to scale back expectations of four or more US interest rate cuts this year. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.22% before rising to 4.30%, up from 4.28% late Thursday. It has been generally declining since January, when it was near 4.80%, as investors cut their expectations for US economic growth.
China’s central bank buys more gold
China’s gold reserves rose to 73.61 million troy ounces at the end of February from 73.45 million at the end of January, according to an official announcement, as the Chinese central bank continued to buy bullion for a fourth straight month. Data from the People’s Bank of China on Friday showed that China’s gold reserves reached $208.64 billion at the end of last month, up from $206.53 billion at the end of January. According to gold market experts, “The People’s Bank of China’s purchases are an important factor supporting gold, so continuing to buy in February may help build more strength behind the price of gold.”
In general, concerns about US import tariffs, their potential impact on global economic growth and inflation, as well as geopolitical uncertainty, pushed the price of gold to a record high on February 24. Bullion prices rose 27% in 2024, the highest level in 14 years.
Trading Tips:
The direction of gold prices will remain upward, so always remember that gold is one of the most important safe havens, and the continuation of global geopolitical and trade tensions is a fertile environment for the recovery of gold prices.
The performance of the US dollar records its worst week since 2022
According to Forex currency market trading, the US dollar index DXY, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, ended its worst week in more than two years, as investors’ concerns increased that trade policies will slow growth in the world’s largest economy. According to trading, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 2.3%, the largest weekly decline on a closing basis since November 2022. At the same time, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission through March 4 showed that speculative traders, including hedge funds and asset managers, reduced their bets on the US dollar for seven consecutive weeks. They are the least optimistic about the dollar since October, before the US presidential election.
As is known, the weakness of the US dollar supports the rise in gold bullion prices.
The US dollar's recent losses are due to the official approval of tariffs by the new US administration, which has created uncertainty that casts a shadow over US economic forecasts. This contrasts with the strengthening of spending plans in Europe, particularly Germany, which pushed the Euro to its best week since 2009.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to recent trading and the daily chart, the trend of gold prices remains upward. Gold analysts' forecasts today indicate that the opportunity for upward movement is stronger. Currently, the closest resistance levels are $2947, $2965, and then the historical psychological peak of $3000 per ounce. On the technical indicators front, the MACD indicator is turning downward on that time frame, while the RSI has some room before moving towards strong overbought levels. Conversely, and over the same time frame, the support level of $2885 per ounce will remain the most important for bears to start moving prices downward.
We still prefer the strategy of buying gold from every downward level, taking into account that markets will monitor the announcement of US inflation figures this week, which, along with recent job numbers, will shape expectations for the future of US Federal Reserve policies.
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