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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--USD/RUB Analysis: Downwards Trend Builds Additional Wagering Power
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/RUB Analysis: Downwards Trend Builds Additional Wagering Power". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The USD/RUB has continued to produce a trend lower, which has been built on financial institutions clearly remaining optimistic about the potential for a settlement between the Ukraine and Russia mid-term.
The USD/RUB is providing Forex traders good lessons regarding behavioral sentiment. Even if a speculator is not interested in the USD/RUB it would be worthwhile to take a look at the currency pair and examine its results the past three months. In the past week of trading the USD/RUB has continued to produce a trend lower and as of this writing is near 86.3800.
Lows in the USD/RUB went below the 85.0000 level momentarily per bids and asks yesterday. While it is true the USD has shown weakness in the broad Forex market, the ability of the USD/RUB to fall from nearly 114.0000 when the New Year began to its current values is a rather dramatic gain for the Russian Ruble. The fall cannot be accounted to only USD centric weakness, if this were the case other major currencies would have gained nearly 25% against the USD too.
Behavioral Sentiment Lessons and Risk Premium
The move lower in the USD/RUB has mostly taken place because financial institutions are clearly leaning into the belief that the Ukrainian/ Russian war will find some type of resolution over the mid-term. While there are many hurdles that will have to be agreed upon by both sides, there is definitely wagering taking place by large institutions that sunnier days are ahead. The USD/RUB is now trading near a vicinity seen in August of 2024.
Intriguingly the USD/RUB went to a lows around 84.5000 in July and August of last year, and in June of 2024 the currency pair touched the 83.5000 mark momentarily. There were no clear signs that negotiations were taking place at those times in 2024, this makes the likelihood of the USD/RUB to trade lower more enticing via a wagering perspective.
Speculation on the USD/RUB on Broker Platforms
The USD/RUB is not a widely traded currency pair. The USD/RUB doesn’t have a lot of volume, making the potential of price velocity and volatility dangerous, and also very expensive if a wager on the currency pair goes wrong. Traders that want to pursue the USD/RUB should make sure they are able to use entry price orders so they do not get mugged via poor fills as they begin their wager.
Traders should also make sure they have price targets in sights and abide to them without trying to change their take profit orders because they believe that direction will continue only one way. Reversals still occur in the USD/RUB and it certainly needs to be understood that financial institutions are betting on a good outcome from the Ukraine / Russian negotiations – but no guarantees can be given. In other words another episode like the Zelensky – Trump meeting in the Oval Office almost two weeks ago could happen again via any number of politicians involved get angry and turn things pessimistic.
USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:
- Current Resistance: 86.8000
- Current Support: 86.1000
- High Target: 88.9000
- Low Target: 84.8000
The above content is all about "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/RUB Analysis: Downwards Trend Builds Additional Wagering Power", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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