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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Steady Amid Tight Monetary Policy
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Steady Amid Tight Monetary Policy". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 36.35.
- Set a stop-loss order below 36.15.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 36.77.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 36.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 36.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 36.30.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair fluctuated at the beginning of European trading this Thursday morning with a tendency to rise. While in general, the pair's trading during the week stabilized within a limited range below the peak recorded earlier last month at 36.63 Lira.
Early this morning, investors followed the statements of the Turkish Central Bank Governor, Fatih Karahan, who affirmed that the bank would continue its tight monetary policy to reduce inflation in line with the targets set for the end of the year. In an interview with Anadolu Agency, Karahan stressed that the bank is determined to achieve the inflation target of 24% by the end of the year, emphasizing that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the achievement of this goal.
These statements came amid a slowdown in the annual inflation rate in Turkey to 39.05% in February, compared to 42.12% in January. On the monetary policy front, the Turkish Central Bank decided to cut the main interest rate from 45% to 42.5% during its last meeting last Thursday. Karahan indicated that the Central Bank will take the necessary measures to ensure that demand conditions do not affect the inflation reduction path, indicating the continuation of the firm approach in facing inflationary pressures and ensuring economic stability.
In the medium term, the Lira's price is expected to continue to decline against the dollar considering global institutions' expectations that the Turkish currency will record further declines to levels close to 40 Lira per dollar by the end of 2025.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair fluctuated within a limited range while tending to rise, receiving support by trading above the 50-moving average on the four-hour time frame. At the same time, the pair receives support through the general upward trend that controls the pair, as the pair moves within an ascending price channel. Ultimately, current Turkish Lira price forecasts indicate a current rise targeting 36.75 Lira and 36.99 Lira, respectively.
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