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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Reasons Behind Weak Rebound
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Reasons Behind Weak Rebound". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- For four consecutive trading sessions, the EUR/USD currency pair has been attempting to rebound and recover from its losses to the two-year low when it tested the support level of 1.0331 last week.
- The current rebound gains have not exceeded the resistance level of 1.0588 before stabilizing around the 1.0546 level at the time of writing this analysis amid the US Thanksgiving holiday.
Euro Price Recovers from ECB Officials' Comments
According to forex market trading, the euro price found some momentum from a warning by Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank, against the path of excessive interest rate cuts. She warned that borrowing costs are approaching neutral levels and that excessive easing could waste policy options, prompting financial markets to lower expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB until 2025. Furthermore, the discussion on the ECB's approach is intensifying as inflation approaches the 2% target amid economic challenges in the Eurozone.
Euro weakness factors remain
Despite the relative improvement in the performance of the EUR/USD, global uncertainty is increasing in anticipation of Trump's protectionist trade agenda, including proposed tariffs of 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. On another influential front, in France, bond yields have risen to levels last seen during the Eurozone debt crisis, driven by fears that Prime Minister Michel Barnier may fail to pass next year's budget, increasing investor concerns about political instability in the region.
The US dollar price is witnessing some correction
According to reliable trading platform data, the US Dollar Index maintained its recent decline at around 106.1 on Thursday, with trading volumes remaining low due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. According to trades, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.8% in yesterday's session after US personal consumption expenditure inflation data was in line with expectations, indicating little change in US interest rate expectations. In this regard, financial markets are currently pricing in a 66.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates by 25 basis points in December, up from 55.7% the previous week. The dollar also faced pressure earlier after the nomination of Scott Bisente as US Treasury Secretary, which provided a sense of stability to the markets and reduced expectations of aggressive tariff policies under the Trump administration.
German Stocks Continue to Decline
According to stock trading platforms, the German DAX index fell by 0.2% to close at 19262 in yesterday's session, extending a 0.6% decline in the previous session. The performance came amid weak investor sentiment in Europe. Recently, market sentiment remained cautious as Trump continued to assemble his administration team and traders assessed the potential impact of recently announced tariffs. Also, Trump appointed Jameson Greer as US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council. Moreover, Greer was involved in trade decisions during Trump's first term.
Regarding the future of the economic recession, European Central Bank Governing Council member Schnabel indicated that the Eurozone economy is not heading towards recession, necessitating caution in future policy decisions and avoiding rushing to cut interest rates excessively.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
Dear reader, despite the recent rebound of the EUR/USD currency pair, the overall trend of the currency pair remains downward. As mentioned before, stability around and below the support level of 1.0500 will continue to encourage the bears to dominate the trend. Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at the beginning of an upward turn, which means that the bulls still lack strength. Also, the MACD indicator is still stable in the oversold area so far. If the EUR/USD returns to the support level of 1.05, it will encourage the bears to move down again. Consequently, the closest support levels will be 1.0455, 1.0380, and 1.0300, which will be sufficient to push the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
You should be cautious as today's trading will be very limited due to the US holiday, which affects market liquidity and investor sentiment. Therefore, we do not recommend making trading decisions before the markets return to their normal operation. To get EUR/USD signals and other free live trading signals, follow our website for all the latest news.
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