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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: December 2024
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: December 2024". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The EUR/USD was hit by a massive wave of selling in the wake of the U.S election results and the currency pair is testing lows it has not traded since October of 2023.
- Current value for the EUR/USD as of this writing is near 1.0550, this is actually an improvement from the depth of 1.03370 realm that was touched last Friday.
- Today’s trading and tomorrow’s will be extremely light because of the U.S Thanksgiving holiday and this may be quite welcomed by financial institutions which have had their outlooks for the EUR/USD turned upside down the past handful of weeks.
Before the outcome of the U.S election was known on the 5th of November the EUR/USD was trading near the 1.09300 realm, and as the results started to become understood the currency pair began selling with force. The EUR/USD touched the 1.06900 realm the following day. Then on Thursday the 8th, the EUR/USD reversed slightly higher and tested the 1.08000 vicinity in the aftermath of the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on the previous day.
Volatility and Retail Trading in the EUR/USD
Some retail traders may believe that speculating on the EUR/USD is a more polite pursuit, one that doesn’t encounter much volatility. Brokers may sell that story to their clients. Unfortunately, life lessons are sometimes learned under difficult circumstances and trading in the EUR/USD has delivered a resounding amount of dangerous results for all traders the past few weeks. The ability of the EUR/USD to brush aside what may have been proclaimed durable support has likely caused some expensive mistakes not only for retail traders, but for financial institutions as well.
Now that the U.S election results have been digested and the U.S holiday season has begun in earnest, some tranquility may start to be seen in the EUR/USD, but traders should take nothing for granted. Many new U.S economic policies and their effects on the European Union are yet to be known. President-elect Trump’s tendency to negotiate loudly does tend to cause boomerang effects in Forex and the EUR/USD has certainly felt the pain. The question many traders are likely asking is if the firepower of recent selling is going to diminish.
Central Banks, Data and the EUR/USD in December
The European Central Bank will conduct its interest rate meetings in the second week of December, the ECB is in a position which should allow it to cut further, but will it as a lack of clarity resounds? The U.S Federal Reserve will pronounce its Federal Funds Rate one week later and some are expecting another cut of 0.25. However, some of this interest rate analysis has likely been traded into the EUR/USD already.
- The question if U.S and European economic data will cause a reaction earlier in December is legitimate.
- Plenty of nervous outlooks remain within financial institutions regarding the mid-term, but at some point many traders likely assume tranquility will again be seen.
- U.S employment numbers will be published the end of next week and this will influence the EUR/USD.
- However, the Donald Trump factor should not be discounted quite yet in Forex.
EUR/USD Outlook for December 2024:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.03600 to 1.07950
The EUR/USD has touched depths in recent days that have challenged long-term values. It is unlikely many traders thought the 1.04000 level would be tested this November, when they were being asked for their thoughts when the month was just beginning. December because of economic data, central banks and the approaching Christmas season could remain difficult and choppy. The ability of the EUR/USD to climb slightly higher the past couple of days is good, but it will take a sustained move higher early next week and into the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers to significantly alter current perspectives.
Until the EUR/USD exchange rate climbs back above the 1.06500 to 1.07000 levels traders may feel that the lower depths of the currency pair will remain the known range for the next few weeks. Yes, the ECB and U.S Fed will play a big part in trading the EUR/USD in December, but current nervous behavioral sentiment is likely to remain important throughout the month, meaning choppy tests of support and resistance levels will continue. Clarity for financial institutions may not be attained near-term.
The above content is all about "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: December 2024", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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