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【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Near Record High
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Near Record High". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.70.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.55.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.99.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.99.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 35.10.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.75.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rose at the beginning of the week's trading, recording a move near its new all-time highs, which it reached last Friday at 34.95 lira. Moreover, the pressure on the Turkish currency is expanding with the decline in the support provided by the monetary authorities in Turkey. The lira has expanded its losses over the past weeks to record a decline of 20% in 2024, topping the most losing currencies against the dollar during the year.
Despite the depreciation of the local currency, some analysts believe that investing in the lira may be an attractive option, especially for interest rate investors, as interest rates remain at 50%. With US interest rates falling below 5%, some fund managers have started borrowing in US dollars to invest in the Turkish lira, mainly with the currency stabilizing. In this regard, reports from one investment fund revealed that investing in the high-yielding Turkish lira trade is part of our multi-asset portfolios since June 2024. Recently, we have increased investment in this currency after the sudden decline in its value.
Currently, most estimates indicate that the Turkish central bank will maintain the interest rate. Analysts expect policymakers to postpone cutting interest rates due to continued concerns about the slowdown in the decline of inflation, which has recorded higher-than-expected rates in recent months. The main consumer price index fell from 48.58% in October to 47% in November, which is higher than the average estimate of 46.60%. The figures for October and September also exceeded expectations, indicating that the consumer price index will end the year at a level exceeding 40%, which is higher than the estimates of the Turkish central bank.
Finally, estimates indicate that the interest rate will be fixed during the upcoming meeting of the Turkish central bank, which is expected on the 26th of this month. Correspondingly, Estimates indicate that the interest rate will continue to be fixed at the beginning of the coming year.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair opened the weekly trading near its all-time highs at levels of 34.95 lira, as the pair continued to rise based on the same previous trading pattern based on limited daily increases. Currently, the pair is likely to continue rising with the price stabilizing in the movement within an upward price channel, as well as moving above the 50-day moving average. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the dollar, which represents a buying opportunity with every decline, as it targets levels of 35.00 and 35.10, respectively.
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