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【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Stagnant Downward Trend Ahead of Key Events
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Stagnant Downward Trend Ahead of Key Events". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- As expected, the EUR/USD price remained stable to the downside around and below the psychological support level of 1.05 pending the reaction to important economic releases and the announcement of the US Federal Reserve this week.
- Accordingly, it stabilized in the first trading session of this week in the range between 1.0475 and 1.0524 amid strong selling pressure.
Mixed Results of European Economic Data
According to the results of the economic calendar data, the Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index data showed an increase in activity in December. According to the announcement, the S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a reading of 41.4 in December from a reading of 49.5 in November. Expectations were for a reading of 49.5; a PMI above 50 represents growth in the sector. Overall, the results point to unexpected consumer resilience, which could support the Eurozone economy while providing a much-needed positive surprise for the Euro. However, the upside for the EUR/USD pair will be limited as the remainder of the PMI report points to the ongoing challenges facing Europe.
ECB Policies Amid Economic Slowdowns
For its part, the European Central Bank recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, citing economic weakness and growing confidence that inflation is back under control. Yesterday’s data will keep the door open for further cuts by the ECB in 2025. There doesn’t seem to be much appetite for a 50-basis point rate cut, but that could change if the data remains very weak. Even if the bank continues to move with 25 basis points, we believe it will cut rates slightly more than investors currently expect.
As for the impact on the forex market, if the ECB “outperforms” the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the Euro is likely to remain under pressure against the Dollar and the British Pound. However, the ECB stressed that it is not on autopilot and will continue to respond to incoming data. Caution is warranted as the PMI report showed that inflation rates for both input costs and output prices accelerated at the end of the year, with fees rising at a pace that remained above the series average.
Trading Tips:
Do not change your trading advice as the EUR/USD may remain bearish and below the 1.05 support, which warns of a strong technical downward move ahead if political and economic pressures on the euro increase, in addition to the future of US policy under Trump.
French Economy May Remain Weak
In this regard, the Bank of France has cut its forecast for French economic growth, citing political unrest as a burden on the confidence of French households and businesses. Accordingly, the French central bank expects economic growth of only 0.9% in 2025 instead of the 1.2% it forecast in September. Bank officials also cut their forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.3%. Overall, the deteriorating outlook for France adds to the signs of economic damage caused by the political crisis that began with early elections in June and escalated this month to the collapse of the French government and its plans to plug the widening gaps in public finances. The French central bank’s forecasts were finalized before the government collapsed and the budget, which was designed to cut the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025 from 6.1% in 2024, was rejected.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart above, the overall trend of the EUR/USD pair remains downward. Technically, the stability around and below the psychological support level of 1.05 confirms the dominance of the bears on the trend. Bears will have a strong opportunity for further downward movement if US economic data comes stronger than expected and the US Federal Reserve abandons its monetary easing policy with Trump's official takeover. If this happens, the next important support levels will be 1.0420 and 1.0300, respectively, which will cause technical indicators to move towards oversold levels and increase the expectation for the EUR/USD pair to reach parity.
In general, the economic recession in the eurozone remains cantered around the declines in the region’s two largest economies, Germany and France. Both economies remained in contraction during December, while the rest of the eurozone, in contrast, recorded a strong increase in output at the end of the year, with the growth rate reaching a six-month high. Ultimately, Forex investors’ appetite for the euro remains weak and is getting weaker.
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