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【XM Market Review】--Gold Analysis: Gold Rises Post-Holiday
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--Gold Analysis: Gold Rises Post-Holiday". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- Amidst the partial return of financial markets from the Christmas holidays, gold prices have moved higher, gaining above the resistance level of $2,629 per ounce after the gold price index stabilized around $2,618 per ounce before the year-end holiday closure.
- We would still like to note that trading will be limited due to the holidays, so volatility may be strong and unpredictable.
Will the gold price rise today?
According to gold trading company platforms, investors have remained focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations and the expected tariff policies under the Trump administration, which will officially begin in a few days, and which may affect the direction of gold in 2025. On the US policy front, the Federal Reserve has indicated fewer cuts in US interest rates in 2025, but these expectations have been challenged by weaker-than-expected personal consumption expenditure inflation data, suggesting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, which could benefit non-yielding gold.
Gold price expectations will remain bullish
Amidst the policies of global central banks, the gold market is finding strong momentum from increasing global geopolitical tensions. In this regard, Hamas and Israel have traded blame for their failure to reach a ceasefire agreement, despite progress reported by both sides in recent days.
According to current gold prices, the gold price may end 2024 with gains exceeding 27%, thus recording its strongest annual performance since 2010, amid factors such as increased gold purchases by global central banks for hedging, as well as increasing global geopolitical tensions and monetary easing by major global central banks.
The stronger US dollar affects gold
Meanwhile, the recent gains in gold have not been strong due to the US dollar's stability around its two-year high. During the current month's trading, it recorded the resistance level of 108.50 and is currently stabilizing around 108.20 at the time of writing this analysis. Furthermore, the strength of the US dollar is due to the change in expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve amid fears of increasing US inflation as a result of the upcoming Trump trade wars. Therefore, expectations are now that the bank will only cut by half a point during 2025, which confirms that interest rates will remain at much higher levels than previously expected.
In addition, Trump's threats of tariffs have reduced the likelihood of capital inflows from the United States, providing further support for the US dollar. The US dollar also benefited from President Biden's approval of the new US Congress funding bill, which averted a government shutdown at the end of the year.
Trading Tips:
The gold price will remain on its upward trajectory for some time, so be sure to include gold as a component of your investment portfolio.
US Treasury yields remain strong another
Also, factor affecting the gold market is the rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to around 4.62%. Reaching its highest level in nearly seven months, as financial markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations following its hawkish outlook last week.
Overall, weaker economic data, disappointing US consumer confidence, and concerns about Trump's fiscal policies have led markets to adjust their expectations for lower US interest rate cuts in 2025. At the same time, inflation fears have escalated due to additional tariff threats from Trump, including barriers to Mexico, the European Union, and China. Investors have also moved away from the safety of bonds after the US government reached an agreement on a spending bill, preventing a government shutdown at the end of the year.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to gold market analysts, the overall trend of gold prices is upward, and as mentioned earlier, the $2,700 per ounce resistance will remain an important target for the bulls' dominance over the trend. Also, they may reach that peak if prices move towards the resistance levels of $2,645 and $2,668 per ounce, respectively. We still prefer buying gold from every dip, and the closest buying levels currently are $2,618, $2,605, and $2,578 per ounce, respectively. The Relative Strength Index is currently in a neutral position, which confirms the relative balance between the dominance of bears and bulls.
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