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【XM Market Review】--USD/MXN Forecast: Dollar on the Verge of Smashing the Peso
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--USD/MXN Forecast: Dollar on the Verge of Smashing the Peso". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- The US dollar rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday gaining about 24 basis points as I record this. The market pulled back toward the 20.60 level and stabilized a bit.
- I think at this point we are trying to build up the necessary pressure to really take on the 21 Mexican pesos level.
- From a longer term perspective, this is a massive resistance barrier.
- And if we break through this, it's going to be nothing but pain for the peso and probably the Mexican economy.
This is generally where the rubber meets the road from a longer term standpoint. As I scroll out, you can see that once you break the 21 Mexican pesos level, you generally see a shot straight up in the air.
Rates and Risk
Interest rate differential still favors Mexico to a point, but really the recessionary problems that Mexico has continues to be an issue. Furthermore, you get a reasonable return in the United States and currency appreciation, so money is going from Mexico to America. Under normal conditions and before Donald Trump takes office, you have a lot of remittances that come back from the United States back into Mexico to support loved ones. That does have a quantifiable difference in this USD/MXN pair. It does affect it.
Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that there are talks about tariffs. As long as that's the case, it's really going to threaten the Mexican economy. Having said that, there probably is a solution eventually, because quite frankly, I don't think the Mexicans have a choice. But in the meantime, it looks like we're just kind of killing time waiting to see what happens when Trump takes office in about 17, 18 days. Short-term pullbacks almost certainly will find plenty of support at the trend line that I have on the chart, as well as the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, you also have the 20-Mexican peso level that has been historically important and has proven itself recently. I still like the idea of buying dips. I don't like the idea of shorting this pair. Quite frankly, you would have to see the US dollar lose strength across the board for the Mexican peso to suddenly pick up a little bit of a tailwind against it.
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