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【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Ahead of Fed Minutes
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Ahead of Fed Minutes". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- During yesterday's trading session, the EUR/USD pair attempted to rebound upwards, but its gains did not exceed the 1.0435 level before settling back down around 1.0335 at the time of writing this analysis.
- This comes ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting, during which the bank changed the market's outlook for future US interest rate cuts in the new year.
Eurozone Inflation Stronger Than Expected
According to reliable trading company platforms, the Euro received a positive boost from stronger-than-expected inflation data in the Eurozone. According to economic calendar data, annual inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 2.4% in December, its highest level since July, up from 2.2% in November, in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive monthly rise, reinforcing the view that the European Central Bank will take a cautious approach to cutting interest rates.
In the same context, higher-than-expected inflation figures in Germany and Spain reinforced this sentiment, even as France and Italy reported weaker inflation figures. Meanwhile, the market remained focused on US President Trump’s tariff plans, as he rejected claims that his administration might adopt more moderate trade measures.
Trading Tips:
Dear follower, the performance of the euro dollar will remain bearish until Trump is inaugurated and his policy towards the US and global economy becomes clear.
US stock indices stabilize
In today's session, and through stock trading platforms, US stock futures stabilized after a sharp sell-off in yesterday's trading session, following a rise in Treasury yields. Yesterday, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.42%, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.89%. These losses came after the latest ISM services data showed an acceleration in activity and a rise in prices, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for further US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
According to trading, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by about 6 basis points to 4.68%, reflecting inflation expectations and revised prices. According to stock performance, Nvidia shares led the decline, falling by 6.2% and erasing the gains driven by CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at CES on new artificial intelligence and technological advancements. Other large-cap tech stocks, AI-focused companies and cryptocurrency-related stocks also saw significant declines.
The US dollar is stronger ahead of important events
According to forex trading. The US dollar, which is linked to US economic data, recovered better than expected. US bond yields and the dollar had risen after new data confirmed continued inflationary pressures in the US economy, reducing the chances of a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Obviously, this came after the Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI survey showed that prices paid by businesses reached their highest level since February 2023. Overall, the market now believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut US interest rates again before July, confirming the “higher for longer” interest rate thesis that has supported the dollar’s rise that has been in place since October 2024.
On the other hand, US JOLTS job vacancies rose to a six-month high of 8.098 million in November, easily beating expectations of 7.740 million and 7.744 million in the previous month. Overall, the US dollar will also remain supported amid market uncertainty related to US President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Dear reader, the performance is moving according to our expectations that selling the EUR/USD from any upward level is the best trading strategy and that the factors weakening the Euro are stronger and may last for a while. The return of the bears to the EUR/USD pair towards support levels of 1.0300, 1.0245, and 1.0180 will bring the EUR/USD parity closer and at the same time will move all technical indicators towards oversold levels, led by the Relative Strength Index and the MACD. Conversely, and over the same timeframe, the daily chart will have a level of 1.06 as the first target to break the current downtrend barrier.
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