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【XM Forex】--USD/INR Analysis: Surges Higher and the Need for Perspective
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--USD/INR Analysis: Surges Higher and the Need for Perspective". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The USD/INR is trading at record highs after suffering two surges upwards this week, this as financial institutions appear to have put the Reserve Bank of India in an awkward position.
First off, I am not an economist, I tend to look at Forex through the lens of behavioral sentiment via business outlooks interspersed with economic data. Technical charts via the USD/INR are not comforting for traders if they have been wagering on the emergence of a sudden downturn. Twice this week the USD/INR has seen strong upwards momentum.
The USD/INR is trading within record territory, as of this writing near the 87.5750 mark with lightning quick changes are being seen with a wide spread in force. Readers are urged to compare the written price here to the actual market. This comparison will allow speculators to see if more velocity has occurred. Betting on downward moves in the USD/INR will be like playing with fire unless you know for certain the Reserve Bank of India is trying to purchase Indian Rupee in an effort to try and protect their currency.
Nervousness and Questions Abound for USD/INR Currently
Traders who are looking at the USD/IND and pointing to its upwards climb cannot be faulted. However, in fairness lets remember the value ratio of the currency pair and its movement in terms of real math is actually tame in many respects compared to violence the EUR, GBP and JPY have seen over the mid-term. Yes, the USD/INR is moving upwards but this is not an end of days event. It is a reaction to tight controls via the Reserve Bank of India versus financial institutions that do NOT work in the theoretical monetary policy world.
Commercial businesses need USD often to work afar and there has been a line of large traders who have needed to buy USD/INR in order to protect their cash forward outlooks for their clients. The upwards climb on Monday showed nervousness because of global fears due to U.S tariff rhetoric. But unlike many other currencies paired against the USD this week, the USD/INR did not recover its lower levels of 86.6100 via a reversal after the tumult, instead after gapping higher it remained near 87.0000 from Monday through Wednesday. And then yesterday and today it moved higher again because of nervousness rising most likely.
Near-Term Volatility and Indian Policy
The Reserve Bank of India is conducting its monetary policy meetings, and tomorrow the RBI is expected to cut its interest rate by 0.25. This will be the first cut of interest rates in a handful of years. However, and this is why I mentioned I am not an economist to start this article, cutting interest rates when your currency – the Indian Rupee – is losing value is a rather intriguing test. This is my viewpoint via behavioral sentiment and how I expect people at financial institutions to react.
- If the RBI cuts interest rates tomorrow this might not make the Indian Rupee stronger.
- In fact the USD/INR may continue to see an upwards trend – incrementally or quickly depending on demand via financial institutions and the manner in which the Reserve Bank of India confronts the situation.
- Day traders looking to take advantage of this circumstance need to be careful, volatility will be seen in the USD/INR until the week’s trading finishes.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 87.5890
Current Support: 86.5050
High Target: 87.6500
Low Target: 87.4500
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