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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Preparing for a Break of the Ascending Channel
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Preparing for a Break of the Ascending Channel". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Leaning towards a bearish correction.
- Today's Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1255 – 1.1180 – 1.1090.
- Today's Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1385 – 1.1460 – 1.1500.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1190 support level with a target of 1.1320 and a stop-loss of 1.1100.
- Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1400 resistance level with a target of 1.1150 and a stop-loss of 1.1500.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
For two consecutive trading sessions, the EUR/USD currency pair has been subjected to selling pressure, pushing it towards the 1.1283 support level at the time of writing. This movement has negated the gains from the beginning of the week when it tested the 1.1418 resistance level. Selling pressure on the Euro-Dollar intensified with the xmcnglobal.commencement of US-European trade talks and as the US dollar gained positive momentum against other major currencies. This dollar strength followed investors' and markets' reactions to the content of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
The US central bank continues to monitor Trump's trade wars.
According to yesterday's announcement, US Federal Reserve officials assessed that the announced tariff increases were significantly larger and broader than expected, and indicated significant uncertainty surrounding the direction of trade policy and the magnitude, scope, timing, and duration of their economic impact, according to the minutes of the May FOMC meeting. Policymakers considered this uncertainty unusually high and saw that downside risks to employment and economic activity, as well as upside risks to inflation, had increased.
In discussing the monetary policy outlook, participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market remaining strong and the current policy stance "moderately restrictive," the Federal Reserve was "well-positioned to be patient and await further clarity on inflation and economic trends." They agreed that "the elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook called for a cautious approach until the broader effects of recent government policy changes become clearer."
EUR/USD trading today will encounter new significant data. The US economic growth reading and weekly US jobless claims will be announced at 3:30 PM EEST. Throughout the rest of the day, statements from several Federal Reserve officials are expected.
Technical Levels for the EUR/USD Pair:
Based on the daily timeframe chart, the losses in the EUR/USD currency pair have moved the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closer to the midline. A break below this line would support bears in preparing to deepen the Euro-Dollar's losses. A move towards the 1.1200 and 1.1145 support levels would confirm a downward shift and move technical indicators to the verge of oversold territory. Currently, the MACD indicator lines are in a neutral position, even with the recent Euro-Dollar selling.
In the same vein, breaking the 1.1400 resistance will remain crucial for EUR/USD bulls to prepare for stronger gains.
EUR/USD Amid Trade Conflicts
According to trading through trusted brokerage platforms, EUR/USD trading has been impacted by US-European trade developments. Trump implemented a new shift in tariff policy, backing down from his Friday threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU exports to the US starting June 1. Trump's reversal of his June 1 threat acknowledged the postponement of tariff implementation until July 9. This, in turn, returns the European Union to its previous status, where reciprocal tariffs were scheduled to be imposed on most countries on July 9, following a 90-day delay from April 9. The Eurozone economy could have suffered significant damage if the June 1 tariffs had gone into effect, so the postponement evoked a sense of relief.
Trading Tips:
We still advise selling Euro-Dollar on every upward move.
Overall, a major element of uncertainty regarding US tariff policy still remains. According to trading experts, "the 'sell America' campaign, which was undoubtedly the dominant campaign in April, is back on the table." Accordingly, financial markets may have adopted a view—and perhaps rightly so—that the final outcome regarding tariffs between the US and the EU will not be at 50%, but how to get there remains unknown for now.
Prior to this, the Euro gained further net support from China's pledge to provide more backing for its domestic economy. According to Prime Minister Li Qiang, China is considering new policy tools in the face of an international economic and trade system "under severe impact." He added that China is considering new policy tools, including some "unconventional measures," which will be launched as the situation changes.
Meanwhile, concern surrounding the direction of fiscal policy has exacerbated dollar anxiety. After the House of Representatives approved the budget bill on Friday, a fierce battle will ensue in the Senate during June.
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