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market analysis
【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: Fitch Predicts Continued Tightening of Monetary Policy in 2025
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: Fitch Predicts Continued Tightening of Monetary Policy in 2025". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.65.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.45.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.80.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.80.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.55.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has risen for the third consecutive day, maintaining its weekly gains while failing to break through the peak of 34.75 reached earlier in the week. The pair's current movements indicate a relaxation of its dominance over the lira's movements, which has recorded consecutive declines over the past weeks.
Despite the decline in inflation, Fitch Ratings analysts forecast that Turkey will continue to tighten its monetary policy next year. The agency's report on the economies of Eastern European countries stated that the balance of economic policy in Turkey has led to a decline in external vulnerabilities and improved future market expectations, especially after the shift to a traditional monetary policy that reduced the current account deficit and supported the Turkish central bank's foreign exchange reserves.
Analysts expect the coordination of economic policies in 2025, which may significantly reduce the budget deficit, especially if monetary policy continues to tighten. Finally, the report mentioned that inflation rates are still high, contrary to the previous expectations of the Turkish Central Bank.
The most prominent data of the week was the annual inflation rate in Turkey, which reached 47.09% in November, recording a decline from the level of 48.58% in October. Education and housing prices recorded the highest year-on-year increases, rising by 92.49% and 74.45%, respectively. In contrast, the categories of transportation, clothing, and footwear witnessed lower growth rates, with prices rising by 26.24% and 31.45%, respectively. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 2.24% in November, driven by a significant increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages by 5.10%.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has stabilized at the same trading pace throughout the week, as the pair has failed to break through the 34.75 lira level. Currently, the pair is expected to continue its gains considering the continued upward trend. Also, the pair is supported by trading above support levels that push the pair to continue rising. The pair is moving within an upward price channel, and it is also trading above the 50-day moving average, which also supports the upward trend, continuing the pair's rise. The forecast for the Turkish lira includes a rise in the dollar, which represents a buying opportunity with every decline.
The above content is all about "【XM Market Review】--USD/TRY Forecast: Fitch Predicts Continued Tightening of Monetary Policy in 2025", which is carefully compiled and edited by XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful for your trading! Thank you for your support!
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