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market analysis
【XM Forex】--USD/JPY Analysis: Bullish Flag Formation
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--USD/JPY Analysis: Bullish Flag Formation". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- For eight consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY pair has been steadily rising, approaching the resistance level of 158.00, the highest level for the currency pair in five months.
- This stability has formed a bullish flag on the daily chart, confirming the bulls' control over the direction of the USD/JPY pair.
- Also, bringing it closer to the next psychological resistance target of 160.00, which would increase talk of imminent Japanese intervention in the currency markets.
The Japanese Yen continues to be affected by the course of the Bank of Japan's policy
The selling pressures on the Japanese yen against the rest of the other major currencies, led by the US dollar, continue as investors continue to assess the expectations of interest rates at the Bank of Japan. The summary of the Bank of Japan's meeting in the last meeting of 2024 revealed that policymakers discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in the near term, as some bank officials suggested that the conditions were favourable for such a move. For its part, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, with Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating the need to evaluate more data on wage growth next year and to gain more clarity on the economic policies of the incoming US administration. In general, investors are closely watching any potential intervention by the Japanese, especially after the Japanese Finance Minister reiterated concerns about the decline in the Japanese yen and repeated his warning against taking action against excessive movements in the currency.
At the same time, the performance of the Japanese yen faced additional pressure from rising US Treasury yields, despite recent US interest rate cuts.
Trading Tips:
The dollar/Japanese yen price will remain in an upward trend until the vision of Trump's policies becomes clear and until there is Japanese intervention in the currency markets to stop the collapse of the yen against other currencies
Asian stock indices decline
According to today's trading through stock trading company platforms, we have noticed a decline in Asian stock market indices today, Monday, as was the performance of US stock indices. Selling came amid uncertainty ahead of the end of 2024 and the inauguration of Trump as US President. According to trading, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index halted its five-day gain as shares in Australian and Japanese markets fell, while Chinese shares rose. At the same time, US 10-year Treasury yields remained near their highest levels since May after rising last week, which could affect the performance of stock prices. Due to the holidays, trading remains limited and within narrow ranges.
Also, it was noticeable that trading volumes for Japanese stocks were about 17% below their 30-day average, and Monday is the last trading session for Japanese financial markets this year, with public holidays from Tuesday to January 6. Overall, while Asian stocks are at their lowest levels today, they are still heading towards a strong annual performance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 7.5% in 2024 as global central banks eased monetary policy and technology stocks rose amid optimism about artificial intelligence.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to trade at levels slightly above the 100-hour moving average, and despite the decline. The USD/JPY pair remains centrally anchored in the 14-hour Relative Strength Index, leaving enough room for both bulls and bears to move. In the near term, bears will seek to extend the current decline towards 156.89 or lower to the support at 155.98. On the other hand, bulls will seek to take advantage of rebounds at around 158.51 or higher at the resistance 159.32.
In the long term, based on the performance on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading within an ascending channel formation. Also, the 14-day RSI supports a long-term bullish bias as it approaches overbought levels. Therefore, bulls will seek to continue the current winning streak to around 161.73 or above the resistance of 166.50. On the other hand, bears will seek to take advantage of the selling operations to book profits at around 153.31 or below the resistance of 148.86.
Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here's a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.
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