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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/ZAR Analysis: Move Lower as Calm Begins to Return for Speculators
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/ZAR Analysis: Move Lower as Calm Begins to Return for Speculators". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The USD/ZAR has produced a tranquil price range the past handful of days while also producing an incremental move lower with a healthy correlation to the broad Forex market.
- The USD/ZAR is trading near the 17.96125 ratio as of this writing with a rather fast display of fluctuations.
- The ability of the USD/ZAR to trend lower the past week and produce a correlated move with global Forex is a healthy sign for the South African Rand.
- The 18.00000 level proved to be a target last week, and sustained trading below this ratio may be a signal additional bearish perspectives linger within in financial institutions.
The high for the USD/ZAR last week was a hair below the 18.19000 mark which was challenged on Tuesday and Wednesday. But the currency pair began to produce solid selling and challenge support levels. The U.S jobs numbers presented on Friday were slightly better than expected, but the USD/ZAR still managed to maintain its lower near-term range. A depth of 17.95000 was fought over momentarily before the USD/ZAR climbed back to slightly higher values.
Shifting Sentiment and a Return to Important U.S Data
The USD/ZAR suffered from a strong bullish trend like most currency pairs which were confronted by risk adverse nervous trading as financial institutions had to deal with unclear outlooks the past couple of months. However, the return to values near and below the 18.00000 level for the South African Rand is significant. Financial institutions are still satisfied domestically with changes to fiscal policy which are slowly taking shape in South Africa. The healthy move lower the past week has returned the USD/ZAR to an important support juncture.
The U.S will be releasing Consumer Price Index data this Wednesday. Financial institutions appear ready to react with greater emphasis placed on U.S economic data, this after a month of nervous trading in the aftermath of U.S election results and the coming return to power of President-elect Trump. The strength of the USD has to be taken seriously, but it is possible selling wagers are starting to take shape in currency pairs like the USD/ZAR.
Near-Term Caution and Potential Reactions
Choppy trading near support levels today and tomorrow would suggests that large players are leaning into the notion the USD/ZAR has additional room to traverse lower. However, until U.S inflation numbers are seen on Wednesday, betting on lower outcomes before the publication of U.S CPI data will be dangerous.
If the U.S inflation results are weaker the USD/ZAR should move lower. A stronger number could create buying momentum and a retest of resistance levels around the 18.10000 to 18.20000 marks. For the time being traders should be cautious and while it may be tempting to look for lower values, traders should consider using slight reversals higher as a place to sell for quick hitting bets that use support levels as take profit goals.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.00400
Current Support: 17.96090
High Target: 18.03100
Low Target: 17.91900
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